Agora 35+ Points Above Prediction Markets on NVIDIA
Will Jensen Huang leave NVIDIA?
53%
Agora: Yes
14–18%
Polymarket: Yes
+35
Points closer
Agora's players called it at 53% Yes. Polymarket gave it roughly 14–18%. Huang then resigned (NVIDIA announcement).
Agora
53%
Polymarket
14–18%
How we got there
Same post-training methods we used on the midterms. Because we can see how people reason, we can pick out what makes some forecasters better than others, and we've post-trained our models to catch that bias earlier. Calibration is the thing that really stood out here.